The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) has officially declared the start of the 2024 wet season.
In a statement earlier today, the TTMS said:
The official start to our wet season is marked by measurable rainfall (≥ 0.1mm) produced by a Tropical Wave and/or the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These weather features are the main contributors to the rainfall during Trinidad and Tobago’s wet season.
The TTMS has been monitoring a very active Tropical Wave (TW), which moved off the west coast of Africa and traversed the Tropical Atlantic over the last six (6) days. This TW is currently affecting Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) with scattered, light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over Trinidad. Over the last several hours, parts of both islands have recorded measurable rainfall accumulations, signaling the official start of the 2024 Wet Season for T&T.
As of 2 pm today, Saturday, 25th May 2024, the TTMS automatic weather stations at Mayaro and Paramin recorded 7.4 mm and 19.8 mm of rainfall respectively, with higher accumulations observed in other areas. As the weekend progresses, this TW will continue to move across the T&T producing occasional moderate showers and the medium chance (60%) of isolated heavier showers or thunderstorms with accompanying gusty winds. Seas are expected to become choppy in the event of gusty winds. A moderate concentration of Saharan dust is forecast to follow the TW from Sunday evening. The ITCZ which is currently near latitude 4.0 N, will continue to slowly migrate northwards, and is expected to bring increased rainfall and potentially more frequent weather disturbances as the wet season advances.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak El Niño phase, however, a transition to a La Niña phase is expected by the middle of the wet season. This shift in ENSO conditions will influence the weather patterns throughout the season. For the first half of the wet season (June through August), rainfall is expected to range from near normal to above normal amounts. Wetter-than-normal conditions are particularly anticipated in western Trinidad and over most of Tobago. During the latter half of the wet season (September through November), rainfall is likely to be near-normal. Overall, the 2024 wet season is expected to be mostly near-normal in terms of rainfall, with some regions experiencing above-average precipitation early in the season. The potential for flood is moderately increased for established flood-prone areas and slightly higher for locations that are becoming flood-prone.
Climatologically, T&T’s wet season can extend into December and typically transitions fully to the dry season in January. The Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from 1st June to 30th November, coincides with T&T’s wet season. For 2024, our region faces another potentially active hurricane season with heightened tropical cyclone activity expected during the peak months of August to October, with the greatest likelihood of tropical cyclones in August and September.
Historically, T&T experiences the peak Saharan dust concentrations during the month of June. These dense dust plumes can suppress deep convection and limit significant rainfall, while causing hazy conditions and poor air quality. Residents with respiratory conditions should take precautions during high dust periods. Nevertheless, under the presence of Saharan dust, impactful rainfall can still occur given the right atmospheric conditions.
The TTMS wishes to assure the national community that we continue to closely monitor weather conditions over land sea and air within our area of responsibility and will continue to advise the general public in a timely manner, about impending adverse weather-related hazards. The public, relevant agencies and ministries are advised to adopt measures to mitigate the potential impacts of the Wet Season. Stay informed by following updates from the TTMS and other relevant authorities. Access daily forecasts at 6 am, 10 am and 4 pm, as well as monthly seasonal outlooks on the TTMS website at www.metoffice.gov.tt, social media platforms and the TT Met weather app. Stay safe and prepared.