Since the beginning rise of COVID-19 infections in early March this year, it’s certain that we all have probably asked the critical question…How could the coronavirus pandemic end?
The coronavirus has hit the whole world hard, let’s face it! While many countries are starting to reconfigure themselves and that scientists worldwide are already talking about a third wave on the horizon, we wonder when this pandemic will end. Or rather how it will end.
Reports from Scientists states that they believe the virus may or may not persist over time. Let’s take a look at four (4) possible hypotheses that have been in media/news circulation:
A vaccine stops the Coronavirus
This is the solution on which all countries seem to be banking. Laboratories around the world are mobilized and working day and night to find a safe and effective vaccine to stop the coronavirus. Currently, ten are in phase 3 of clinical trials and some in testing on volunteers. The most optimistic think that a English vaccine would be ready by Christmas, when most scientists believe thata solution could be implemented by spring 2021.
If a vaccine is finally found, we will have to wait again a few months before everyone can benefit. Another problem that could get stuck: the reluctance of some people to be vaccinated first for fear of a product that will only have been created in a few months.
The term collective immunity was talked about a lot when Sweden has chosen to make it its strategy. For those who do not yet know what it is, the Institut Pasteur explains that it “ corresponds to the percentage of a given population that is immune / protected against an infection from which an infected subject introduced into this population will transmit the pathogen to less than one person on average, effectively bringing the epidemic to extinction, because the pathogen encounters too many protected subjects. In other words, we rely on the antibodies of former patients of coronavirus to protect them and protect others to ultimately make the spread of the virus impossible.
For this collective immunity to work, at least 60% of the population is infected. Today, just under 33 million people have contracted and recovered from the virus out of a global population of 7.8 billion people. Needless to say, the goal is not ready to be reached.
Note also that a few rare cases present a double contamination with coronavirus. It seems like antibodies only protect for a short time of time, which makes collective immunity illusory.
That is already happened with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002 and 2003. The virus had hit China hard and killed hundreds. He had undergone a mutation that had weakened him and allowed his mastery. A natural disappearance could also be caused by seasonality. Unfortunately, such a projection also seems unlikely. The coronavirus is much more contagious and symptomatic cases contribute to a wider spread. Also, we noticed this summer that the heat had in no way stopped its circulation.
It never goes away
In this context, COVID-19 would become like the common cold, endemic. According to Future, several forms of the common cold coronavirus are spread each year. The COVID-19 could therefore follow the example of flu which kills thousands of people every year in France. It would be possible to find treatments to relieve and reduce symptoms, but not to get rid of it completely.